Donald Trump Is His Own Worst Enemy on Iran
Failing to alter the behavior of America’s adversaries, Donald Trump resorts to bullying America’s allies.
First published in the Times of Israel
The time for peace is now, declared U.S. President Donald Trump, after bombing three Iranian nuclear sites, throwing the entire MAGA world into disarray after a brutal digital civil war the cultish movement faced days ago over how the United States should view Israel.
The president, satisfied with the optics of three strikes—whose effectiveness in destroying targets is still in question—and confident in the loyalty of his devoted followers, who will unconditionally praise him, expressed a desire for a ceasefire after Iran responded by firing missiles at the Al Udeid base in Qatar.
“Israel and Iran… there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE,” Trump posted on Truth Social, a ceasefire that Iran not only denied but responded to with contempt, firing a barrage of missiles that killed at least five people in Israel within the early hours of the supposed Trump-facilitated truce.
Israel rightfully vowed to respond to the ceasefire violations by dispatching planes to strike targets in Iran.
Humiliated and furious over his failure to rein in on Iran’s behavior, Trump resorted to his usual tactics when he unable to dominate adversaries and neer peers—turning, as he did with Ukraine and the European Union, on America’s friends, Israel in this case, to show his supposed power and influence.
A flurry of frantic Truth Social posts predictably followed.
“ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump wrote.
“ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES,” he pleaded.
Failing to coerce Iran, Trump tried to strongarm the Jewish state.
To bolster his message, the faithful cultists of the MAGA World, as expected, joined the flurry.
Self-described “theocratic fascist” Matt Walsh of Daily Wire commented, “We got involved in this conflict primarily for Israel’s sake, not our own. It’s delusional to deny that. Now Trump is obviously fed up. As he should be. Time to leave this circus and let Israel deal with its own problems.”
Thus began a concerted effort by radical Trumpists to lay the groundwork should Trump turn on Israel. At the same time, the president backtracked on his support for regime change in Iran, living up to the moniker TACO: “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
Eventually, Israel buckled and minimized their strike to a symbolic hit on a radar installation.
But this encounter laid bare how Trump can be self-defeating when it comes to Iran.
The first fatal flaw of Trump is his desire for glory and cheap fame, as well as the pursuit of deals for their own sake, all in an effort to increase his count of supposed policy achievements with little regard for quality.
Supporters of Israel who also love Trump deceive themselves into thinking that the president is a friend of the Jewish people, a modern ‘Cyrus,’ and someone who has the best interests of Israel and the United States at heart.
This has repeatedly been proven untrue. If there is anything Donald Trump has proved to be loyal to, it is his legacy and not some romantic ideal of American greatness or honor towards Israel.
Donald Trump’s last-minute push for a lenient nuclear deal with Iran revealed his core political instinct: the pursuit of an agreement for its own sake. In the days leading up to Israel’s raid, he was focused on negotiation, confident that his “magic touch” could succeed where the original agreement had failed in his eyes, even though he was the one who had withdrawn from it.
This behavior is Trump’s signature brand of political snake oil: promising grand, often contradictory, outcomes for nothing. He offers mass deportations while cutting taxes; he promises a manufacturing renaissance while imposing tariffs and ratcheting up labor costs through slashing immigration.
He applies this same logic to foreign policy, claiming he can personally broker peace in Ukraine and the Middle East at no real cost, ignoring the profound political and military capital required. As such, he kept pushing for a deal’s sake without regard to the details.
What is promising grand schemes for little to no costs usually called? A ponzi scheme.
While some now see his outreach to Iran as a clever ruse, the facts suggest a more opportunistic motive. The State Department initially distanced the U.S. from the Israeli strikes, indicating they were an independent Israeli operation. It was only after Israel’s success became clear that Trump’s camp began to frame his diplomatic efforts as a strategic deception, allowing him to co-opt the victory and claim credit for a successful outcome he had little to do with.
Trump’s second fatal flaw stems from a deep-seated insecurity that is fundamentally at odds with his cultivated image as a master dealmaker.
His entire political persona is built on the premise of dominance—the idea that he, through sheer force of will, can bend world leaders to his agenda. However, this projection of absolute strength shatters when confronted by geopolitical reality.
Authoritarian regimes and near-peer competitors like China, Russia, and Iran have demonstrated that they are largely immune to the bluster and transactional threats that define his approach. They cannot be easily bullied into submission, and their refusal to yield publicly exposes the limits of his power, leaving Donald Trump diplomatically impotent and personally humiliated.
This is where the dynamic turns pernicious. Unable to demonstrate strength against America’s actual adversaries, Trump pivots to a target he knows he can control: America’s allies. This is not just a tactical shift; it is a psychological necessity. He needs to manufacture a victory to mask his failure, and allies are the perfect subjects for this kind of political theater.
The reason this tactic works is simple: alliances are, by their very nature, built on a degree of dependency. Nations like Israel, Ukraine, South Korea, or members of the European Union rely on the United States for critical support. This can be in the form of security guarantees under the U.S. military umbrella, access to sophisticated weaponry, vital intelligence sharing, or preferential economic relationships.
Trump understands that while he cannot force Xi Jinping to change his economic policy or compel Iran’s Ayatollah to dismantle his nuclear program, he can threaten to withhold military aid from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy or undermine Israel’s security on the world stage.
Allies are susceptible to this pressure because they have something tangible to lose. Their leaders are accountable to their own populations and cannot easily absorb the economic or security fallout from a public schism with their most powerful partner. This vulnerability provides Trump with a low-risk arena to perform his “strength.”
The process is predictable. First, he fails to achieve a goal with an adversary. Then, humiliated, he identifies an allied nation and manufactures a grievance or makes an unreasonable demand. He follows with a barrage of public threats via social media, casting the ally as ungrateful, recalcitrant, or disloyal. This public shaming is designed to force their hand, creating a spectacle in which an allied leader is seen bending to his will.
For his political base, this performance is not seen as bullying a friend, but as a powerful demonstration of “America First” principles. They are encouraged to see allies not as partners in a shared system, but as transactional freeloaders who have been taking advantage of the United States for decades. Therefore, when Trump strong-arms an ally, his supporters are conditioned to interpret it as him finally putting America’s interests above all else.
They celebrate the capitulation of a friendly government as a significant victory, a cultish chorus of praise that effectively drowns out the news of his original failure against an actual adversary.
This exactly played out with Israel vis-a-vis Iran.
And it is these two flaws that have been self-defeating in Trump’s venture to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
The choice before Israel is clear: proceed with the strikes on Iran and uphold deterrence, or bend to the theatrics of a self-absorbed American president who would rather police his allies than confront his enemies and blame other people for the consequences of his strategic folly.
If Israel yields to Trump’s performative ceasefire demands, it will not only embolden Iran but also invite future aggression.
During Trump’s first administration, seasoned officials—such as Jim Mattis, H.R. McMaster, and even the often-criticized John Bolton—could at times contain the worst of Trump’s instincts. When Trump blustered, the bureaucracy buffered. When he threatened allies, diplomats reassured. When he showed signs of impulsive withdrawal or betrayal, professionals worked overtime behind the scenes to steady the ship.
But no such firewall exists today.
The second Trump administration has been staffed not by steely-eyed professionals but by sycophants, conspiracists, and loyalists who have been elevated precisely because they lack the courage or credibility to challenge him. These are men and women who praise his most reckless impulses and reward his most damaging whims. In such an environment, Trump is no longer merely a flawed commander-in-chief surrounded by guardrails—he becomes a hazard to his own administration’s objectives.
And, Tehran is watching and learning.
Iran’s decision to violate the so-called Trump-brokered ceasefire with a deadly missile barrage was not a mere oversight. It was a calculated test. A test of Israel’s resolve. A test of Trump’s attention span. A test of the West’s willingness to act in defense of its red lines.
If that test ends with Israel holding its fire while Iran gets to both kill and crow, then the Islamic Republic has won this round. It will know it can strike with impunity. It will rebuild what was lost. It will dig deeper, go farther, and wait until the next opportunity to strike again. A second Israeli war on Iran will only be more brutal to fight now that Iran has experience dealing with Israel directly.
Iran’s words shouldn’t matter more than its capabilities. Words and intentions can change, but capabilities less quickly. Hence, the solution to peace lies in obliterating Iranian capabilities.
It is not too late to course-correct, but that correction must come from outside the Oval Office.
Trump’s advisors—those few who may still understand the stakes—must have the courage to push back. They must recognize that the path of self-sabotage cannot continue.
It’s time for rational Republicans to break ranks with the cult.
It’s time to speak truth to power.
It’s time to put country before personality.
First published in the Times of Israel